As the Ukrainian military continues to make slow progress against Russian forces, questions have been raised about whether negotiations, coupled with increased Western military aid, could offer a more feasible path toward resolution.

The ongoing conflict: Ukraine’s military has been fighting to regain territory occupied by Russia since June, however, the frontlines have shifted only marginally, despite months of intense battles.
* Russian forces still hold around 16% of Ukraine’s territory in the south and east.
* Ukraine’s overt aim is to drive out all Russian troops, currently estimated to exceed 200,000 despite the prospect of a drawn-out conflict.

The dichotomous solution: Some parties propose that Western countries bolster Ukraine’s military power while simultaneously preparing for negotiations.
* This two-pronged strategy suggests that continued military aid coupled with diplomatic dialogues might lead to a resolution.
* The suggestion has received some pushback, with polls showing a majority in Ukraine prepared to pursue continued combat in the hopes of ejecting all Russian forces.

Current strategies: The current focus remains on Ukraine’s southern and eastern military offensives which have made limited but significant advances.
* Additional weaponry for Ukraine, including long-range US missiles that could further pressure Russian supply lines, is also being considered.
* The Biden administration has contributed or pledged over $100 billion to Ukraine’s military and humanitarian aid since last year, with another $24 billion now under consideration.

Fading Support: Despite strong bipartisan support for aid to Ukraine, opposition is growing, making it crucial to clearly define what success in Ukraine would look like.
* The definition of victory remains vague with possibilities ranging from an outright Ukrainian military triumph to a negotiated settlement, partially upholding Russia’s control over parts of Ukraine.
* Concerns are also being raised that the continuation of conflict in Ukraine deflects the US’s attention from China and a potential invasion of Taiwan.

Looking ahead: As it stands, neither Russia nor Ukraine is expressing interest in negotiations.
* While Russia has annexed four Ukrainian regions as permanent Russian territory, Ukraine has emphasized that it will not cede any ground.
* Despite the challenges associated with initiating negotiations, some experts emphasize the need to be prepared for potential diplomatic dialogues if and when the opportunity arises.

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